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Hillary will win .....

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Offline Lois

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on: April 14, 2015, 04:36:02 PM
Or...you could just skip to the final paragraph to read the clincher. After you've done that, you can go back and read the other reasons why we're almost certain to be saying "Madam President" when the dust has settled.

No snark or blather here. Just straight forward analysis, expressed simply and clearly. Emphasis mine.


Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 Election
by Jonathan Chait



Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.

Of course, not everybody who follows politics professionally believes this. Many pundits feel the Democrats’ advantage in presidential elections has disappeared, or never existed. “The 2016 campaign is starting on level ground,” argues David Brooks, echoing a similar analysis by John Judis. But the evidence for this is quite slim, and a closer look suggests instead that something serious would have to change in order to prevent a Clinton victory. Here are the basic reasons why Clinton should be considered a presumptive favorite:

1. The Emerging Democratic Majority is real. The major disagreement over whether there is an “Emerging Democratic Majority” — the thesis that argues that Democrats have built a presidential majority that could only be defeated under unfavorable conditions — centers on an interpretive disagreement over the 2014 elections. Proponents of this theory dismiss the midterm elections as a problem of districting and turnout; Democrats have trouble rousing their disproportionately young, poor supporters to the polls in a non-presidential year, and the tilted House and Senate map further compounded the GOP advantage.

Skeptics of the theory instead believe that the 2014 midterms were, as Judis put it, “not an isolated event but rather the latest manifestation of a resurgent Republican coalition.” Voters, they argue, are moving toward the Republican Party, and may continue to do so even during the next presidential election.

It has been difficult to mediate between the two theories, since the outcome at the polls supports the theory of both the proponents and the skeptics of the Emerging Democratic Majority theory equally well.

A Pew survey released this week gives us the best answer. Pew is the gold standard of political polling, using massive surveys, with high numbers of respondents and very low margins of error. Pew’s survey shows pretty clearly that there was not a major change in public opinion from the time of Obama’s reelection through the 2014 midterms:



Of course, Pew is not surveying actual voters. It’s surveying all adults. But that is the point. What changed between 2012 and 2014 was not public opinion, but who showed up to vote.

2. No, youngsters are not turning Republican. The Emerging Democratic Majority thesis places a lot of weight on cohort replacement: Republicans fare best with the oldest voters, and Democrats with the youngest, so every new election cycle incrementally tilts the electoral playing field toward the Democrats.

Skeptics have pushed back by claiming that the youngest voters — the ones entering their voting years since 2008 — are turning back toward the Republican Party. Their main evidence has been pollings of millennial voters by the Harvard Institute of Politics. Conservatives have given these results a great deal of attention — it suggests that the youngest voters, disillusioned by the Obama administration, have abandoned the liberal tendencies of their older brothers and sisters. But Harvard’s polling has not held up well; it predicted millennial voters would support a Republican Congress in 2014, which turned out to be extremely inaccurate.

Pew’s more recent survey combs through the data and throws more cold water on the “younger millennials” thesis. As Nate Cohn notices, younger millennials lean Democratic at nearly the same rate as older ones:



(Cohn does note that younger nonwhite millennials seem less Democratic than older nonwhite millennials, but young whites are far more Democratic than older ones, making the trade somewhat of a wash.)

3. Clinton isn't that unpopular. A more recent line of thought has settled on Clinton’s limits as a candidate. It is probably true that she lacks Obama’s talents as a communicator and a campaign organizer. A recent Quinnipiac poll showing her struggling in Iowa and Colorado attracted wide media attention and seemed to confirm that the email scandal has tarnished Clinton’s national image.

It is true that Clinton has, inevitably, lost much of the popularity she won when she was serving as secretary of State and largely removed from partisan politics. Nonpartisan figures can attract broad support, while people engaged in political fights tend to revert toward the mean. Clinton’s support is, as it has been through most of her career, closely divided:



On the other hand, Republicans are much less popular. Jeb Bush, who is probably the best known of the Republican contenders, has much worse favorable ratings:



So there is little reason to think Clinton’s personal unpopularity will hold her back in a race against a Republican who is likely to have no more personal appeal, and possibly a lot less.

4. Obama is trending up. One major question looming over the next election is whether the public feels satisfied with the Democrats’ policy direction or wants to give Republicans a chance. Importantly, President Obama’s job approval ratings have recovered since the midterm elections, when his net approval stood at minus ten, to about minus three. His approval ratings on handling the economy have risen even more sharply. Approval of Obama’s economic job performance has actually reached parity with disapproval for the first time since 2009:



If the economy continues to expand between now and the 2016 election, Obama’s approval rating will probably rise a little higher. In the modern political world, strong popularity is not necessary to win; Obama won reelection with approval ratings below 50 percent. Voters make comparative choices, and all a candidate needs is to be superior to the alternative. But the economy is currently on a course, barring a slowdown, to leave the incumbent party in a stronger position.

5. Is it time for a change? The one remaining ground for Republican optimism is the possibility that voters will decide three straight presidential terms for the Democratic Party is too much. Many political scientists (such as Alan Abramowitz) believe this exhaustion factor is real; after a second term, voters grow increasingly restless with the in-party and are more likely to decide it’s time for a change. If this is true, Clinton may face headwinds even in an otherwise favorable landscape.

It may well be true. But there are reasons to doubt it. One reason is that models that detect voter impatience are based on a very small number of data points. Since World War II, there have been eight presidential elections in which the incumbent party has held office for two terms or more. It’s hard to draw definitive conclusions from such a limited number of events.

A second reason is that nearly all of those elections took place in a very different kind of party system. The 20th century was a time of loose-knit parties with a great deal of ideological overlap. There were liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats, which created large constituencies to swing back and forth. Democrats won more than 60 percent of the vote in the 1964 election, and then Republicans did the same eight years later. That made sense in a world where the two parties seemed to share a lot of common assumptions. Voters who supported Lyndon Johnson in 1964 weren’t crazy to switch to Richard Nixon in 1972; Nixon had established the Environmental Protection Agency and supported universal health care and a basic income.

The polarized electorate of today is a different place, and voters may not act the same way as they used to. There are fewer swing voters, and therefore conditions like a third straight term, or even a severe recession, may not budge as many of them from their normal partisan habits. We don’t know how deeply the partisan split has hardened into place; each party seems to be able to count on the support of at least 45 percent of the voters regardless of what is happening in the world.

6. There's no alternative. All of the above brings us back to the central challenge facing Clinton. She cannot promise her supporters a dramatic change or new possibilities; she is personally too familiar, and the near certainty of at least one Republican-controlled chamber of Congress suggests continued legislative stalemate. Her worry is that ennui sets in among the base and yields a small electorate more like the kind that shows up at the midterms, which is an electorate Republicans can win.

The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party's barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy America’s choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.[/i]

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/why-hillary-clinton-is-probably-going-to-win.html



Offline staci

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Reply #1 on: April 14, 2015, 04:48:47 PM
"hears drum roll"
 :emot_whistling:

one of the originals


Offline MissBarbara

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Reply #2 on: April 14, 2015, 06:06:45 PM
This is an interesting, thoughtful, and thought-provoking article.

Purely for the sake of argument, here are six reasons why Hillary Clinton will not be elected president in November 2016:

1) The Pendulum Effect: American voters have clearly demonstrated that, when it comes to our presidents, roughly every 8 years we switch parties, almost like clockwork. Since 1944 (over 70 years ago), we've had:

FDR's 4th term + Truman (D) = 8 years
Eisenhower (R) = 8 years
Kennedy + Johnson (D): 8 years
Nixon + Ford (R) = 8 years
Carter (D) = 4 years
Reagan + Bush #1 (R) = 12 years
Clinton (D) = 8 years
Bush #2 (R) = 8 years
Obama (D) = 8 years


2) She didn't even make it to the end of the primary season in 2008. She "dropped out" of the campaign in June 2008, primarily due to an empty campaign chest. At the risk of vastly oversimplifying, Obama bested her in the primaries because he captured the lion's share of the support of wealthy liberals, leaving Hillary with the leftovers, which weren't enough for he to make it to the Convention. I see no reason why she will become their darling in 2016.


3) Is She Is Or Is She Ain't Obama's Baby? This, perhaps, is the biggest question -- and the hardest hurdle for her to leap over. American candidates love to paint themselves as "outsiders" (and American politics is the only profession on the planet where a proclaimed lack of experience is deemed a qualification). Hillary is, in most respects, the ultimate insider.

More to the point, she was, for four years, one of the highest-ranking members of the Obama administration. Is that an asset or a liability? It depends who you ask, of course, but, if need be, can she successfully distance herself from Obama? I don't think so.


4) Hillary is neither/nor. She's not a liberal, by an definition of the word (except Joan's), and she's not really a traditional moderate. Great emphasis -- including in the OP -- is placed on the Conservative/Tea Party vs. Moderate rift in the GOP, while little thought is given to the divide, albeit less pronounced, in the Democratic Party. She can -- and will -- play the liberal card during her campaign, but, as noted above, can she capture the hearts and, especially, wallets of wealthy liberals? Can she even capture the votes of lunch-pail Democrats in sufficient numbers to win the election, let alone the primary? That remains to be seen.


5) Miss Barbara's Theory of "The Great 20%." Though this is hardly an original assertion, but in any given presidential election, each candidate will automatically win 40% of the vote, primarily from the party faithful. The candidate who wins the election is the one who captures the majority of the remaining 20%. That's how Reagan, Clinton, Bush #2, and Obama won -- and, it's worth noting, in those eight elections, none of them captured 60% or more of the popular vote. Thus, the famous "Reagan Democrats" were also the "Clinton Republicans," etc. Given #1-4 above, I can't see how Hillary Clinton can position herself to both solidify the party faithful and capture at least half of the "Great 20%."


6) She's not the most likable person, and she certainly doesn't generate excitement and enthusiasm. I think these factors -- far more than the fact that she is a woman, since those who wouldn't vote for a woman on principle would never vote for a Democratic candidate in the first place -- weigh more heavily against her than any of the five points I mentioned above.


For the record, I have proven spectacularly bad at political prognostication. I was, for example, convinced that Hillary would trounce Obama and capture the Democratic candidacy in 2008 and, well, we saw how that turned out...





"Sometimes the best things in life are a hot girl and a cold beer."



coacheric

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Reply #3 on: April 14, 2015, 06:11:17 PM
B, thanks for your break down. Much better than me just saying there is no chance in hell for her



Offline lookinginnd

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Reply #4 on: April 15, 2015, 03:49:44 AM
Hopefully neither Hillary or Bush get the nod. But as to Hilliary how can someone promote herself as the candidate that favors equal pay for women when she paid the women of her senatorial staff 28% less then the men on her staff. That was 3 times the assumed average of 9% less nationally. The Obama admin is running around 13% disparity in pay.



Offline brody

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Reply #5 on: April 15, 2015, 05:22:08 AM
I am now treading into the dreaded Room 1408.....

Yet I have to say that I am disgusted with dynasties: both of Bushes and Clintons.  I am nearly ready to start an ABB or and ABC party!  (That's Anybody But Bush!  and  Anybody But Clinton!)

So I am revolted by a Hillary campaign just as much as the prospect of a Jeb Bush campaign.  No!!  Please, not again!

So here I offer my commentary of Hilarious-ry in pictures:







« Last Edit: April 15, 2015, 06:31:27 AM by brody »



Offline Lois

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Reply #6 on: April 16, 2015, 03:59:59 PM
And yet peeps remember the Clinton years as times of prosperity.  Bush?  Not so much.



Offline watcher1

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Reply #7 on: April 16, 2015, 08:46:25 PM
An estimated 2 billion dollars she will have collected to run may also help her win. Still, do we another Clinton or Bush in the White House? 

Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds.


dodger

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Reply #8 on: April 16, 2015, 09:56:59 PM
An estimated 2 billion dollars she will have collected to run may also help her win. Still, do we another Clinton or Bush in the White House? 

No but it seems that is where we are headed.



Offline lookinginnd

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Reply #9 on: April 17, 2015, 05:05:04 AM
And yet peeps remember the Clinton years as times of prosperity.  Bush?  Not so much.

Not that Clinton had much to do with it. The dot com bubble had ballooned and was driving the economy. We all know it also burst and sent us into a recession.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dean-baker/there-is-no-santa-claus-a_b_2362845.html

America does not need political dynasties, just say no to the Bushs and the Clintons.



Offline Lois

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Reply #10 on: April 17, 2015, 06:42:04 AM



Offline GEMINIGUY

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Reply #11 on: April 17, 2015, 07:37:55 AM
THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE IN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2016


OUR NEXT COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF WILL BE ALEX. P KEATON





:^)

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Then it's good enough for me" - Adam Ant


Offline Elizabeth

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Reply #12 on: April 17, 2015, 06:49:20 PM
Roscoe P. Coltrane.....and of course his dog....."Flash".
 :D

Love,
Liz



Offline GEMINIGUY

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Reply #13 on: April 17, 2015, 09:42:33 PM
Do we REALLY want him for President??? Besides, he was just the puppet for an evil, greedy puppeteer...

"If it's good enough for the Gemini Guys
Then it's good enough for me" - Adam Ant


Offline watcher1

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Reply #14 on: April 21, 2015, 01:49:46 AM
81-Year-Old Man's Obituary Pleads 'Do Not Vote for Hillary'

Larry Darrell Upright died on April 13, 2015, at 81 years old. His obituary asks in lieu of flowers, to send donations to the Shriners Hospital. Oh, and also to NOT vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The obituary begins as any would -- information about the deceased and his family. But it's the ending that demands the most attention:


In lieu of flowers, memorials may be sent to Shriners Hospital for Children at 2900 Rocky Point Drive, Tampa, FL 33607.

Also, the family respectfully asks that you do not vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016. R.I.P. Grandaddy.

The family told WSOC-TV that the last line was added as a tribute to their father, who they described as "passionate about politics" and a "serious Republican."

Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds.


Offline GEMINIGUY

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Reply #15 on: April 21, 2015, 04:12:49 AM
All right, no Hillary for President, but if Americans want a female President then I know who they should vote for.



VERONICA MARS IN 2016!!! CAST YOUR VOTE

"If it's good enough for the Gemini Guys
Then it's good enough for me" - Adam Ant


Offline Lois

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Reply #16 on: April 21, 2015, 05:54:05 AM
Haters gonna hate.



Offline watcher1

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Reply #17 on: April 23, 2015, 07:30:45 PM
Hillary's camp said one of her four main issues as she runs for president will be to attempt to sway Congress to limit the amount of money candidates can take in when they run for office.  But I am guessing that will be after she amasses an estimated $2 billion dollars for her run.  I do, though, agree that "big money" has ruined elections and the Supreme Court needs to rethink their opinion that stopping the flow of big money is a violation of the First Amendment.

Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds.


Offline Katiebee

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Reply #18 on: April 23, 2015, 10:10:10 PM
It just says that those with money have more rights than others. They are more equal.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 04:41:37 AM by Katiebee »

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Offline Lois

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Reply #19 on: May 01, 2015, 04:44:44 PM
Let us not forget that is was obvious even prior to Obama's first victory that Hillary Clinton would, in all likelihood, be waiting to take over when Obama was finished. It's not often that political opponents have seven years to prepare attacks against a likely challenger. This isn't the last "scandal" which will emerge between now and election day, based on hints and insinuations...and no evidence.

I'm reposting a NEWSMAX article here; this really is a month of firsts.


In Defense of the Clinton Foundation
Christopher Ruddy, CEO of Newsmax

When I heard that Bill Clinton was making as much as $500,000 per speech and made many more millions in his post-presidency, I thought to myself, God bless him. This is the American way.

Former President Clinton’s speaker fees are probably in line with other former presidents who draw big fees, maybe bigger owing to his global popularity.

But God bless them all.

Business and organizations love to rub shoulders with iconic American leaders — though the money Clinton has earned is probably a fraction of what President George H.W. Bush made by signing up with The Carlyle Group, an international conglomerate that made most of its initial money from U.S. defense contracts and from foreign countries like Saudi Arabia.

The elder Bush served his country admirably over a long period, starting in World War II as a heroic pilot, and later in several public offices, including the presidency. He later got his reward after leaving the White House.

God bless George H.W. Bush.

So, it is not every day that I defend Bill and Hillary Clinton, or the Clinton Foundation.

In fact, it may come as a surprise to some. In the 1990s I was described by both James Carville and George Stephanopoulos as the Clinton White House’s No. 1 press enemy. But after Bill Clinton left the White House, I came to admire him and his post-presidential work.

I was drawn to him largely for the very same reason he and his wife are being criticized today: the Clinton Foundation. Over time, I was impressed enough with its work that I even became a donor.

This may be difficult for many of the Clinton critics to stomach, considering the miasma of allegations now being made about them, largely due to a new book entitled "Clinton Cash" (HarperCollins) by Peter Schweizer.
A Fox News special that aired this past Friday detailed many of the allegations from the still-unreleased book. Fox said the book showed the "tangled" and "blurred" relationships between the Clinton Foundation and the Clintons' private or political activities.

After watching the Fox program, it became clear to me the only thing "tangled" and "blurred" are the numerous unsubstantiated, unconnected, and baseless allegations being made about them.

John Cassidy, a columnist with The New Yorker, fair-minded and balanced, got it right when he wrote that "Clinton Cash" appears to contain "largely unsubstantiated allegations."

He notes that Schweizer admits he cannot prove the allegations, and that "with [Fox News' Sean] Hannity and other conservative media figures piling on, the Clinton campaign will be able to portray questions about the Clinton Foundation and the family’s finances as a political witch-hunt rather than a legitimate exercise in vetting presidential candidates."

Even Bill O'Reilly, who has a penchant for telling the truth, told his Fox audience that the Clintons deserved the "presumption of innocence" and that "right now the evidence is circumstantial, not vetted, and the subject of wild speculation by anti-Clinton forces."

Don’t get me wrong, if there were any serious allegations here, I too would want to have them investigated. But I also don’t want to go back to the '90s, either, when one allegation led to a daisy-chain effect, and the GOP ended up looking bad as the Democrats kept winning.

But let’s get back to the matter of the Clintons and their foundation. I have been involved with the foundation for over seven years now. During that time, I have always found it nonpartisan. I have never felt the whiff of politics from either its staff or any of its activities.

I recall attending my first Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) event and meeting Jack Kemp there. As you may remember, Kemp had run against Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential race as the vice presidential candidate. At that meeting, Kemp had nothing but praise for what Bill Clinton was doing.

So what was the former president doing?

Rather than simply "cashing in," the young former president wanted to devote a substantial amount of his time and energy to making the world a better place, improving the lives of poor people and, at the same time, demonstrating in a real way that Americans cared.

Remember also the context of the time. America was globally criticized during its war on terror, especially after the invasion of Iraq. Few nations joined the "coalition of the willing." Our nation was losing its stature as leader of the free world.

It was Bill Clinton, using the platform of his foundation, who became the de facto goodwill ambassador of the United States.

I know for a fact that then-President Bush was deeply appreciative of Bill Clinton's help during this period. Let’s not forget that it was George W. Bush who had so much confidence in Bill Clinton that he asked him to co-chair with his dad, Bush 41, both the Tsunami and Katrina relief efforts. (Later, Obama personally asked Bill Clinton to co-chair the Haiti relief effort.)

Compare for a second how Bill Clinton has continued to serve America's best interests abroad with former President Jimmy Carter, who has not always done so.

What about all that foundation money? Well, let’s peel the onion on the accusations.

One of the things I liked about the Clinton Foundation is how little money actually goes to the foundation itself.

Ingeniously, Bill Clinton set up his annual foundation conclave, CGI, as a clearinghouse between other foundations, wealthy donors, NGOs, governments and businesses — to meet face-to-face with charities working on the front lines of poverty alleviation, education and healthcare.

At CGI, the Clinton Foundation doesn’t encourage donations to itself (though it easily could have), but instead seeks "commitments" from donors to other charitable organizations to improve global health and wellness, increase economic opportunities for women in less-developed nations, reduce childhood obesity, and spur economic growth in countries that desperately need the help.

After those commitments are made, no money flows into the Clinton Foundation. Donors honor their pledges directly with the charities.

Over 10 years, CGI meetings have resulted in more than 3,100 commitments to action, deploying more than $100 billion which has been used to improve the lives of more than 430 million people in 180 countries around the world.

The effects of these commitments and the impact of the Clinton Foundation’s other initiatives have been enormous. For example, some 85,000 small farmers in Africa have increased their crop yields, creating economic vitality for themselves and their communities while helping to feed the continent.

Of course, where the foundation sees a pressing need it seeks to address that need directly using foundation money, staff, and resources.

Back in the '90s AIDS reached epidemic levels in Africa, set to wipe out millions. Governments seemed indifferent, as were many in the medical and pharmaceutical establishment — until Bill Clinton got involved.

He personally convinced the big pharmaceutical companies to greatly reduce their prices and disseminate their drugs widely to combat the crisis. But he didn't stop there. His foundation set up its own clinics for HIV testing and prevention education.

Probably because of this track record, no one is really questioning the actual work of the foundation. Instead, the accusations argue that the Clintons engaged in quid pro quo transactions — raising foundation money while Hillary allegedly gave favorable treatment to the donors through her position as chief of the State Department.

One claim is that to help a major donor to the foundation, Hillary as secretary of state, changed her position and supported the Colombia Free Trade Agreement, which was ratified in 2011.

In another instance, again to help the same donor, the U.S. government agreed to give a Russian company ownership of Uranium One, a firm which controls approximately 20 percent of the uranium mines in the U.S.

Knowing a bit how this administration works, it is preposterous to think that President Obama or his White House approved any deal to benefit the Clinton Foundation or one of its donors.

In the case of Colombia, it had made tremendous strides in improving its human rights situation during the period Hillary Clinton changed her position. And, as it turned out, the Clinton donor had sold out his stake in Uranium One years before the Russians bought the company.

Importantly, The New York Times reported that no less than nine federal agencies and officials including the Defense, Treasury and Energy Departments, as well as the White House, had to approve the Uranium One deal.

Jose Fernandez, who held the position of the department's principal representative on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which reviewed the sale, told The Wall Street Journal: "Secretary Clinton never intervened with me on any CFIUS matter."

Well, if there’s smoke — there’s fire? Perhaps it’s better to say, Where there’s smear, there’s not always fact.

I think the imperative for journalists is more appropriate: Follow the money. So let’s do that.

The sister companies of News Corp and 21st Century Fox own HarperCollins, which published Peter Schweizer’s book; they own The Wall Street Journal, which first raised the issue of the foreign donations; they own the New York Post, which broke the details about the Schweizer book; and they own Fox News, which gave the story oxygen and legs.

With so much media mojo from one company, there is no doubt they will be doing some pretty good "cashing in" from the many millions of dollars their new best-seller will generate.

Nothing wrong with that, it's the American way.

And yes, God bless them too!

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/clinton-foundation-cash-controversy/2015/04/27/id/640856/