Trump is a personality cult. God help Ukraine if he gets the nomination and wins. I guarantee you Putin is doubling down on efforts to influence the election. Two narcissists with their backs against the wall. A very dangerous combination for the world.
I'm not sure Putin gets that far. He'll double down and try to move, but Ukraine hangs over him like the Sword of Damocles. The full mobilization decree to draft 300k men is already starting to backfire, and those troops will be so poorly trained that they're only hope of surviving is hoping that Ukraine runs out of bullets. And with Russia talking about using nukes, his only hope is that NATO and Uncle Sam stay as far away from him as he tries to scavenge enough parts from 100 dead nuclear weapons to make one that works. He's backed himself into a corner, he's getting old, and his health is sketchy per reports. I don't think he makes it to 2024. And if he is dumb enough to actually try to use a nuke, there's no way out for him. He's shown that he doesn't care about MAD, so why not glass his chateau? The US has spent trillions of dollars in the last 40 years on weapons that we can only imagine. There's a reason we don't have universal health care, and he's finding out why. Our hand-me-downs are kicking his ass, imagine what the good shit can do.
As far as Trump, he's on the wrong end of 22 criminal and civil investigations. He's about to lose the bulk of his businesses in New York, Georgia is likely to indict over trying to fuck with the election, Colorado and Arizona are ramping up stuff, and the feds have at least 2 known grand juries looking at him. Then there's the espionage case. That little end-around he tried with his hand-picked judge just pissed off the DOJ even further and delayed the investigation by about 2 weeks. 2 weeks where the FBI likely built a solid case to search his other properties like Bedminster and ran through all the fingerprints they found on those classified documents.
Meanwhile, DeSantis and Abbot are fucking around with their migrant plane rides trying to "own da libz" by trying to make them look as horrible as they are and being absolutely shocked when they aren't. Also, bright fucking move sending a plane full of asylum seekers to an island full of lawyers and judges.
When Trump, the Count of Month Old Crisco, goes down he'll go down swinging and dragging everyone with him. That's what a narcissistic sociopath does when they fall. He will blame everyone around him, attack each and every person he can, throw everyone under the bus, and cause general chaos. Especially if he tries to torpedo DeSantis and the rest of the Nationalist Christians or NAT-C's as he faces down all of those charges and lawsuits.
Here's my good-case scenario: Trump spends the next two years dealing with all of the various criminal charges, up to and including sedition and espionage. Dems take the Senate by a few more votes and hold the House. While Trump is trying to run, the Republican Party faces a RICO charge for all of the organized crime they've engaged in to help Trump stay in power and overthrow the election. They're essentially neutered by this point, but Trump is still innocent until proven guilty. Trump announces that he's running even while facing felony charges. DeSantis or Abbot or whoever tries to run against Trump but they both go scorched earth against each other. When Trump loses the nomination, he tries to form his own party, the MAGA party. This splits the right-wing voters in two. Meanwhile, Trump does get convicted on several charges and the Senate and House disqualify Trump from every holding office again via 14th Amendment. All of the Murdoch family dies a horrible, painful death and Fox News is sold for scrap after their role in January 6th is brought to light. Tucker Carlson has a stroke on camera doing that stupid face of his, but no one can tell the difference.